FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估     

赵一丁  尹训强  宋亚娟  乔方利 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(1):5-12

The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model(FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study.The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993–2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for midlatitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions.The average skill of the North Pacific variability(NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72(0.55) when El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase(out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6%(23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.  相似文献   

上层海洋对台风"凯萨娜"(2009)的响应特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王冠琳  李大伟  徐腾飞  滕飞  魏泽勋 《海洋科学》2019,43(9):1-11

本文利用多源卫星遥感数据和Argo浮标数据对2009年台风"凯萨娜"过后,南海上层海洋的物理和生态响应特征进行了分析。结果表明,"凯萨娜"引起的上升流流速最大可以达到1.6×10~(–3)m/s,台风过后,海表面温度(SST)下降显著,最大降温幅度可以达到6℃,海表面高度降低,先前存在的中尺度冷涡进一步加强。台风过后,沿着台风路径,叶绿素浓度升高,最大值可以达到2 mg/m~3以上,初级生产力升高到台风过境前的5倍。SST的最大降温中心与海面高度下降区域以及叶绿素浓度升高的区域一致。Argo数据表明台风诱发了强烈的垂向混合和艾克曼泵吸,不同位置处,垂向混合和艾克曼泵吸的强度不一样。通过混合和泵吸过程,台风可以把海洋内部的营养盐输送到海洋表层,对整个南海的物理和生态过程有重要影响。  相似文献   

乌兰布和沙漠东北缘地温变化特征及其影响因子     

罗凤敏  高君亮  辛智鸣  郝玉光  王丽娜  李帅 《中国沙漠》2019,39(1):179-186

基于内蒙古磴口荒漠生态系统国家定位观测研究站监测数据，分析2014年1—12月不同土层的地温数据及同期气象数据，进而阐明乌兰布和沙漠东北缘地温变化特征。结果表明：（1）乌兰布和沙漠地温及气温具有显著的日变化特征，气温最高值与最低值出现时刻相对巴丹吉林沙漠提前2 h，相对东部地区滞后1 h；地温与气温季节变化特征一致，各季节地温最值出现时刻相对气温滞后1 h；（2）地温变化速率随着土壤深度的增加而减小，在土壤深度达到70 cm以后，地温全年在0℃以上；低于0℃的5 cm地温持续时间约为4个月；（3）地温与空气温度、太阳辐射变化趋势一致，地温相对太阳辐射及气温明显滞后。相关分析与逐步回归表明，对地温变化起决定作用的环境因子为空气温度、蒸发量、太阳总辐射、风速、空气相对湿度、降水。  相似文献   

塔克拉玛干荒漠-绿洲过渡带尘卷风活动特征——以肖塘为例     

马明杰  杨兴华  何清  买买提艾力&#  买买提依明  周成龙  霍文 《中国沙漠》2019,39(2):115-121

利用1992-2011年塔克拉玛干沙漠北缘荒漠-绿洲过渡带肖塘气象站的观测资料，分析了该地区尘卷风的年、月变化规律及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明：（1）1992-2011年尘卷风发生日数总体呈波动递减趋势；尘卷风主要发生在3-9月，占全年总日数的90.9%，其中4-7月占全年总日数的70%左右。（2）尘卷风月发生日数随月平均地表与1.5 m高处温差的增大而线性增加（r=0.875，P<0.01）。（3）尘卷风月发生日数随着月平均风速的增大而幂函数增加（r=0.89，P<0.01）。（4）尘卷风月发生日数随月平均相对湿度的增大而线性减少（r=-0.869，P<0.01）。  相似文献   

干热岩钻探关键技术探索   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王勇军  代娜  郑宇轩 《山东国土资源》2019,35(2)

干热岩是国际公认的高效低碳清洁能源,近年来,随着国家对清洁能源勘探开发的提倡和支持,国内开展了一些干热岩勘探工作。干热岩钻探是前期获取地质资料进行资源量计算及后期开发利用的关键部分。现阶段国内在干热岩钻探工艺技术方面还没有形成体系,大多借用石油钻井行业及地质钻井行业的一些工艺技术,但干热岩钻探钻遇地层温度普遍较高,且大部分孔段均为坚硬的花岗岩地层,因此如何在高温环境下保持钻井液性能,保证其携带岩屑及维护孔壁稳定的功效,在坚硬的花岗岩层中如何提高钻进效率,实现高效钻进,钻遇破碎地层时如何维护孔壁稳定,实现护壁堵漏等问题,该文结合国内已施工的部分干热岩钻探工程,对国内干热岩钻探所采取的工艺技术进行了探索,研制了抗高温配方的钻井液,使用转盘回转+孔底动力钻具复合钻进,在钻井液中加入抗高温封堵剂,可有效提高干热岩钻探效率,以期促进干热岩钻探工艺技术的研究、应用和推广。  相似文献   

Cartographic Symbol Design Considerations for the Space–Time Cube     

Christopher League 《The Cartographic journal》2019,56(2):117-133

The cartographic representation of geographic phenomena in the space–time cube comes with special challenges and opportunities when compared with two-dimensional maps. While the added dimension allows the display of attributes that vary with time, it is difficult to display rapidly varying temporal data given the limited display height. In this study, we adapt 2D cyclic point symbols to construct 3D surfaces designed along a helical path for the space–time cube. We demonstrate how these complex?3D helical surfaces can display detailed data, including data reported daily over 100 years and data reported in four-hour intervals over a year. To create the point symbols, each value is plotted along the curve of a helix, with each turn of the helix representing one year or week, respectively. The model is modified by varying the radii from the time axis to all points using the attribute value, in these cases maximum daily temperature and four-hourly ridership, and then creating a triangulated surface from the resulting points. Using techniques common to terrain representation, we apply hue and saturation to the surface based on attribute values, and lightness based on relief shading. Multiple surfaces can be displayed in a space–time cube with a consistent time interval facing the viewer, and the surfaces or viewer perspective can be rotated to display synchronized variations. We see this method as one example of how cartographic design can refine or enhance operations in the space–time cube.  相似文献   

郯庐断裂带肥东北部文集地区构造岩类型与构造变形分析     

袁芳  宋传中  LIN ShouF  石永红  李加好  李振伟  王微  王阳阳 《岩石学报》2020,36(2):601-620

位于郯庐断裂带中南部的肥东地区是郯庐断裂带内韧性剪切带出露的主体区域之一。本文从肥东北部文集地区的构造岩组成及其变形入手,通过详细的野外观测、室内显微构造变形分析来确定该地区构造变形的几何学形态及其涡度、有限应变、分维度、差异应力、应变速率等参数。研究区主要出露角闪岩相肥东变质杂岩,构造岩以糜棱岩和糜棱岩化片麻岩为主,岩石变形强烈。根据极摩尔圆法得到的运动学涡度值为0.729~0.870,指示区域内的韧性剪切活动以简单剪切为主。几何学形态上,肥东北部文集地区构造整体呈一背形展出,其枢纽走向NE-SW,轴面倾向SE,物质及变形强度等方面均表现出一定的规律和对称性。研究区内动态重结晶石英颗粒边界具有统计学上的自相似性,其分维值D在1.143~1.208之间,且自背形核部向两翼,颗粒粒径增大,分维值减小。差异应力Δσ介于17.86~55.18MPa之间,应变速率ε值在1.960×10^-13~7.330×10^-12s^-1之间,且背形核部差异应力和应变速率较两翼大,呈近似对称性分布。通过对比以上构造参数可以发现,区内差异应力和应变速率表现出一定的正相关性,自核部向两翼二者均呈减小趋势;动态重结晶石英颗粒则与应变速率呈负相关性,即核部颗粒细小、两翼增大。本文从几何学、运动学以及显微构造变形分析等方面对该区构造变形展开精细化研究,借此来分析肥东北部地区郯庐断裂带的构造形态和运动学特征,这对进一步认识郯庐断裂带的演化过程及构造模型的建立有着重要的意义。  相似文献   

基于树轮宽度重建川西南137年秋冬季平均气温变化     

谢成晟  李景吉  高苑苑  石松林  彭培好  杨兴  冯玮娜 《第四纪研究》2020,(1):252-263

在全球气候变暖背景下,青藏高原东南缘的川滇横断山高海拔地区秋冬季温度变化已经成为区域气候变化研究热点。为了更好地了解长时间尺度下秋冬季平均气温变化对树木生长的影响,本文运用泸沽湖地区丽江云杉(Picea likiangensis)树轮宽度资料,建立了标准年表。并基于气温与树轮宽度指数的关系,重建了过去137年来川西南地区的秋冬季平均气温波动历史。重建序列存在2个暖期(1911~1927 A.D.,1992~2015 A.D.)、1个冷期(1939~1991 A.D.)。与其他树轮序列、沉积记录及历史记录的比较和空间相关分析,显示重建结果可靠,且具有区域代表性。集合经验模态(EEMD)分解得到2 a、19 a和54 a的周期控制序列冷暖波动。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO),太阳黑子,太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)可能是以上周期的驱动因子.  相似文献   

Terrestrial heat flow and lithospheric thermal structure in the Chagan Depression of the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin,north central China     

Yinhui Zuo  Shu Jiang  Shihu Wu  Wei Xu  Jiong Zhang  Renpeng Feng  Meihua Yang  Yongshui Zhou  M. Santosh 《Basin Research》2020,32(6):1328-1346

The Chagan Depression in the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin, located at the intersection of the Paleo-Asian Ocean and the Tethys Ocean domains is an important region to gain insights on terrestrial heat flow, lithospheric thermal structure and deep geodynamic processes. Here, we compute terrestrial heat flow values in the Chagan Depression using a large set of system steady-state temperature data from four representative wells and rock thermal conductivity. We also estimate the “thermal” lithospheric thickness, mantle heat flow, ratio of mantle heat flow to surface heat flow and Moho temperature to evaluate the regional tectonic framework and deep dynamics. The results show that the heat flow in the Chagan Depression ranges from 66.5 to 69.8 mW/m², with an average value of 68.3 ± 1.2 mW/m². The Chagan Depression is characterized by a thin “thermal” lithosphere, high mantle heat flow, and high Moho temperature, corresponding to the lithospheric thermal structure of “cold mantle and hot crust” type. We correlate the formation of the Yingen-Ejinaqi Basin to the Early Cretaceous and Cenozoic subduction of the western Pacific Plate and the Cenozoic multiple extrusions. Our results provide new insights into the thermal structure and dynamics of the lithospheric evolution in central China.  相似文献   

Current-induced scour beneath initially elevated subsea pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

When a subsea pipeline is laid on an uneven seabed, certain sections may have an initial elevation with respect to the far-field seabed, e_o, and thus potentially affecting the on-bottom stability of the pipeline. This paper focuses on quantifying the effects of the upstream dimensionless seabed shear stress, θ_∞, and Reynolds number, Re, on: (1) the maximum dimensionless seabed shear stress beneath the pipe, θ_max, to be compared to the critical shear stress in order to determine whether scour would occur and progress towards an equilibrium state; and, (2) the dimensionless equilibrium scour depth beneath the pipe, S_eq/D. Using a 2-D Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach along with the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence model, a parametric study involving 243 computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations was conducted. The simulation results were used to develop a closed-form equation for the prediction of θ_max. Subsequently, experimental measurements of S_eq/D have been compiled from published literature, to develop a new closed-form equation for the prediction of S_eq/D with a high correlation to the experimental data. In summary, we present two closed-form equations for the prediction of θ_max and S_eq/D for pipelines with an initial e_o/D, which are applicable for both clear-water and live-bed conditions. The effects of θ_∞ and Re have been included, albeit Re having a small influence as compared to the other parameters.  相似文献